“الإيكونوميست”: اتفاق إسرائيلي سعودي قد يقلب الشرق الأوسط رأسا على عقب

27 سبتمبر 2023 sidaoui آخر خبر, سري جدا 845

نشرت مجلة “الإيكونوميست” تقريرا تحت عنوان “اتفاق إسرائيلي سعودي قد يقلب الشرق الأوسط رأسا على عقب”، وقالت إن التوقيع عليه بمساعدة أمريكية يمكن أن يمنح الرياض التكنولوجيا النووية.

وقالت المجلة إن ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان لم يخف استمتاعه بمنظور معاهدة استراتيجية بين الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل والمملكة.

وفي مقابلة تلفزيونية نادرة يوم 20 سبتمبر، صرح الأمير محمد بن سلمان بأن الاتفاق قريب، حيث قال “كل يوم نقترب، وتبدو المحادثات لأول مرة جدية وحقيقية”، مضيفا أنها قد تكون “أكبر صفقة تاريخية منذ الحرب الباردة”.

وفي 22 سبتمبر، أكد رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي أن الأطراف الثلاثة على أعتاب صفقة، مشيرا إلى أنها ستكون قفزة نوعية.

وذكرت المجلة أن العلاقات الدبلوماسية الرسمية بين السعودية أغنى دولة عربية وأكثرها نفوذا، وإسرائيل التي نبذتها المملكة منذ فترة طويلة، كانت قادمة.

وأشارت مجلة “الإيكونوميست” إلى أن محمد بن سلمان ومنذ توليه منصب ولاية العهد في 2017 التقى مرة واحدة سرا مع نتيناهو، مضيفة أن هناك علاقات تجارية هادئة بين تل أبيب والرياض، ولهما منافس مشترك في إشارة إلى إيران.

وأفادت بأنه في عام 2020 تم توقيع “اتفاقيات إبراهيم” بين إسرائيل والعديد من الدول العربية، باستثناء السعودية، مبينة أن قليلين توقعوا أن يتم إضفاء الطابع الرسمي على العلاقات الإسرائيلية السعودية خلال حياة العاهل السعودي الملك سلمان، الذي ينتمي إلى جيل لم يكن من الممكن بالنسبة له إقامة أي علاقة مع إسرائيل.

ومع ذلك، فقد زادت المحفزات للتوصل إلى اتفاق، وبالنسبة للسعودية فالدافع هو معاهدة استراتيجية جديدة مع الولايات المتحدة حيث ترتبط الدولتان بعلاقة أمنية، إلا أن السعودية تريد معاهدة دفاع رسمية وليس أقل من ذلك، لأن إيران تزيد من برامجها النووية وتقف على أعتاب إنتاج الأسلحة النووية، مما سيقلب التوازن الأمني في المنطقة رأسا على عقب.

وتشمل المحادثات تطوير مفاعل للطاقة النووية حيث تم تخصيب اليورانيوم في داخل السعودية وتحت إشراف أمريكي، حسب صحيفة “وول ستريت جورنال”، وعلى نفس الطريقة التي أدارت فيها الولايات المتحدة شركة أرامكو العملاقة في البداية.

ومع أن هذه الجهود ستكون مدنية الطابع، إلا أن الهدف الأمريكي النهائي هو منع سباق تسلح نووي في الشرق الأوسط، ويقول ولي العهد السعودي إن بلاده لها الحق في امتلاك الأسلحة النووية إذا امتلكتها إيران، حيث صرح “لو حصلوا على سلاح، فنسنحصل على مثله، لكننا لا نريد رؤية هذا”.

وبالنسبة للرئيس الأمريكي جو بايدن، فإطار دبلوماسي أمني تدعمه الولايات المتحدة ويقوم على القوتين الإقليميتين، سيكون إنجازا مهما في السياسة الخارجية ويدخل فيه عامه الانتخابي.

ولاحظت المجلة التغير في مواقف بايدن من السعودية في أثناء حملته الانتخابية التي لم يرد التعامل معها، لكن الواقعية السياسية هي التي تحكم اليوم.

وترى إدارة بايدن في الصفقة وسيلة للتكيف مع العصر الجيوسياسي الجديد والذي ستظل فيه الولايات المتحدة الضامن النهائي لأمن دول الخليج وعلى مدى العقود القادمة، حتى لو استمرت اقتصاديات هذه الدول تنحرف نحو آسيا، وبالتالي إحباط محاولات إيران وتهدئة أسواق الطاقة ومنع الصين من دفع الشرق الأوسط نحو فلك تأثيرها.

ولا تزال هناك عقبات داخلية كبيرة أمام الاتفاق، حيث أوضحت الصحيفة أن الأنظمة الملكية شبه المطلقة يجب أن تأخذ في الاعتبار الرأي العام، مشيرة إلى أن 2% من الشباب السعودي فقط يدعمون التطبيع وذلك بحسب دراسة لمسح الشباب العربي 2023، مقارنة مع 75% في الإمارات و73% في مصر، وكلاهما طبعا لهما علاقات مع إسرائيل.

وهذا يفسر إحالات ولي العهد المستمرة في مقابلته للاحتلال الإسرائيلي للفلسطينيين، حيث قال “بالنسبة لنا، فالقضية الفلسطينية مهمة جدا ونحن بحاجة لحل هذا الجزء”، وشدد على أنهم بحاجة إلى حل هذا الجزء.

وأفادت الصحيفة بأن المحادثات الموازية بين السعوديين والفلسطينيين تتكثف، ومن المقرر أن يزور وفد فلسطيني رسمي الرياض في أكتوبر المقبل، علما أن المسؤولين الفلسطينيين قاموا بزيارات للرياض بشكل أسبوعي تقريبا في الأشهر القليلة الماضية، وفقا لمصدر في الضفة الغربية.

وبينت المجلة أن الأمير محمد بن سلمان لم يذكر في مقابلته التلفزيونية مبادرة السلام العربية، وهي خطة أقرتها المملكة العربية السعودية ودول عربية أخرى في عام 2002، وتقوم على علاقات مع إسرائيل مقابل انسحابها من الأراضي التي احتلتها عام 1967، بما فيها القدس الشرقية وإنشاء الدولة الفلسطينية.

وأشارت إلى أنه وبدلا من ذلك، قدم الأمير وعودا غامضة مثل منح الفلسطينيين احتياجاتهم والتأكيد من توفير حياة جيدة لهم، في الوقت الذي تتحدث الأطراف كلها عن صورة “شرق أوسط جديد” تربطه المواصلات والطاقة، حيث تتغلب الفرص الاقتصادية على الكراهية.

وعلقت المجلة قائلة “إن غموض ولي العهد السعودي بشأن الحقوق الفلسطينية، هو اعتراف بمشاكل نتنياهو الداخلية.. لقد كان كل زعيم إسرائيلي يتوق إلى إنهاء العزلة الإقليمية والتي استمرت منذ عام 1948.. وبالنسبة لنتنياهو الذي يقود حكومة متطرفة ويواجه احتجاجات واتهامات بالفساد، فصفقة مع السعودية ستكون فرصة ذهبية لكي يلمع إرثه المشوه”.

وأفادت بأن الأشهر التسعة الأولى الفوضوية من رئاسته الأخيرة للوزراء تفسر السبب الذي يدفع نتنياهو الذي ظل لسنوات عديدة يتحدث بصوت عال عن مخاطر البرنامج النووي الإيراني، على استعداد لتأييد تخصيب اليورانيوم السعودي كجزء من أي صفقة.

وأشارت في السياق إلى أنه من الممكن أن يؤدي التوصل إلى اتفاق إلى إحداث موجات من الصدمة في السياسة الإسرائيلية ذات عواقب لا يمكن التنبؤ بها، حيث يضم ائتلافه المتشدد أحزابا تمثل المستوطنين اليهود المتدينين في الضفة الغربية المحتلة الذين يعارضون أي تنازلات للفلسطينيين، علما أن لدى المستوطنين تمثيل قوي داخل حزب الليكود وكلهم يحذرون من أنهم سيعارضون أي تنازلات أو صفقة تتخلى فيها إسرائيل عن المناطق الفلسطينية.

هذا، وقالت إن الرئيس الفلسطيني محمود عباس قد أدرك أن السعوديين لن ينتظروا بعد الآن قيام دولة فلسطينية قبل إقامة علاقات مع إسرائيل، ولكنه يريد أن تتوقف إسرائيل على الأقل عن بناء مستوطنات جديدة وتضمن قدرا أكبر من الحكم الذاتي الفلسطيني في الضفة الغربية، معرجة بالقول “وحتى هذا من شأنه أن يسقط ائتلاف نتنياهو الحالي.. ويقول أحد كبار السياسيين اليمينيين إن الصيغة الوحيدة التي سيؤيدها الائتلاف هي حصول الفلسطينيين على أموال سعودية لتلبية احتياجاتهم، ولكن ليس المزيد من الحقوق”.

وتقول المجلة إنه إذا دعم محمد بن سلمان ولو جزء من المطالب الفلسطينية، فمن المحتمل أن يخسر نتنياهو دعم بعض أعضاء ائتلافه ومعه أغلبيته في الكنيست، وسيكون خياره الوحيد هو استخدام احتمال التوصل إلى اتفاق تاريخي لكسب دعم أحزاب الوسط التي رفضت حتى الآن الانضمام إلى حكومته وستطالب بتغييرات سياسية كبيرة للقيام بذلك الآن.

ورغم دعم الوسط بقيادة بيني غانتس ويائير لبيد لصفقة سعودية، إلا أن الأخير طرح بعض التحفظات حول تخصيب اليورانيوم في السعودية، وكلاهما لديه تجربة مرّة في التعامل مع نتنياهو ولديهما الأسباب لعدم المشاركة في حكومة أخرى.

وفي نهاية تقريرها أشارت إلى أن بايدن ربما وجد صعوبة في تسويق الصفقة، فحصول السعودية على مفاعل نووي قد يقلق الأمريكيين الخائفين من انتشار الأسلحة النووية في الشرق الأوسط، كما أن التقدميين المعارضين للسعودية والجمهوريين الذين يصوتون ضد أي شيء يقترحه بايدن سيحاولون عرقلة الصفقة.

وأمل بايدن الوحيد، هو حفاظ نتنياهو على شعبيته بين الجمهوريين لحرف معارضتهم ودفعهم لدعم الصفقة.

نقلا عن رأي اليوم

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  314. When I originally commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there a way you are able to remove me from that service? Kudos.

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  326. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a co-worker who was conducting a little research on this. And he actually ordered me dinner because I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to discuss this issue here on your web site.

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  341. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a friend who had been doing a little homework on this. And he actually bought me breakfast due to the fact that I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending time to talk about this topic here on your internet site.

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  366. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a co-worker who has been conducting a little research on this. And he actually bought me lunch simply because I stumbled upon it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to talk about this subject here on your web page.

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  381. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who was doing a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me lunch because I stumbled upon it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending time to talk about this issue here on your web page.

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  389. When I initially left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is a way you are able to remove me from that service? Kudos.

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  442. Can I just say what a comfort to find a person that truly understands what they are talking about over the internet. You actually know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people must read this and understand this side of the story. I was surprised that you aren’t more popular because you certainly possess the gift.

  444. The next time I read a blog, Hopefully it won’t fail me just as much as this one. After all, Yes, it was my choice to read through, nonetheless I actually thought you’d have something useful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something you could possibly fix if you weren’t too busy seeking attention.

  445. Hello! I could have sworn I’ve visited your blog before but after looking at a few of the posts I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m definitely delighted I came across it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back regularly.

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  452. The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it does not fail me as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read, nonetheless I actually believed you would probably have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you could fix if you weren’t too busy looking for attention.

  453. When I originally commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I receive four emails with the same comment. Is there a means you are able to remove me from that service? Many thanks.

  454. Hello, I do think your website may be having browser compatibility issues. Whenever I take a look at your website in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Besides that, fantastic website.

  456. Having read this I believed it was really informative. I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this article together. I once again find myself spending a significant amount of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

  457. After I originally left a comment I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the exact same comment. Is there a way you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks a lot.

  462. I’m amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s equally educative and engaging, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is an issue that too few folks are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I stumbled across this during my search for something relating to this.

  471. Right here is the right web site for everyone who wishes to understand this topic. You know a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a topic which has been discussed for a long time. Great stuff, just great.

  472. Right here is the perfect website for anybody who would like to find out about this topic. You know a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a fresh spin on a topic which has been written about for ages. Great stuff, just wonderful.

  473. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact ordered me breakfast due to the fact that I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to discuss this matter here on your web site.

  478. Hello there, There’s no doubt that your website could be having web browser compatibility issues. When I take a look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however, when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Apart from that, great blog.

  487. Having read this I believed it was extremely enlightening. I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this article together. I once again find myself personally spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

  492. I’d like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this site. I’m hoping to check out the same high-grade content by you in the future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my very own website now 😉

  502. Howdy! This article couldn’t be written much better! Reading through this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He continually kept preaching about this. I most certainly will send this information to him. Fairly certain he will have a great read. Many thanks for sharing!

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  509. The very next time I read a blog, I hope that it doesn’t fail me as much as this one. After all, Yes, it was my choice to read through, but I truly thought you would have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you could fix if you weren’t too busy seeking attention.

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  528. Hi there, There’s no doubt that your website might be having internet browser compatibility issues. Whenever I look at your web site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in IE, it has some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Besides that, wonderful website!

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  540. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a friend who has been doing a little research on this. And he actually ordered me breakfast due to the fact that I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to discuss this matter here on your web site.

  543. This is the right website for anyone who hopes to find out about this topic. You realize a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a new spin on a topic that has been discussed for many years. Excellent stuff, just great.

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  549. After I initially commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a means you are able to remove me from that service? Thank you.

  550. I must thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this site. I really hope to check out the same high-grade content by you in the future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own website now 😉

  551. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a friend who was conducting a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me lunch simply because I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to discuss this issue here on your web page.

  553. I’m amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I come across a blog that’s both educative and engaging, and let me tell you, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The issue is something that too few folks are speaking intelligently about. Now i’m very happy that I came across this during my hunt for something relating to this.

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